All matches

1. FC Nürnberg — 1. FC Kaiserslautern, 2. Bundesliga

Germany, 2. Bundesliga

1. FC Nürnberg
2.2WWDWW
—
1. FC Kaiserslautern
2.1WLWWD
Outcome probability
502525
1. FC Nürnberg50%Draw25%1. FC Kaiserslautern25%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
11. FC Nürnberg50%2.02—
XDraw25%3.99—
21. FC Kaiserslautern25%3.96—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes57%

ours 1.76

No43%

ours 2.32

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

Metric1. FC Nürnberg1. FC KaiserslauternCombined
Goals scored1.501.002.50
Conceded0.670.671.34
Corners11.310.310.8
Cards2.32.54.8
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    1. FC Nürnberg1. FC Kaiserslautern
    2Table position5
    2Matches in 14 days1
    57.50%Possession50.00%
    8.1Days of rest7.3
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour 1. FC Nürnberg: a home win is rated at 50%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 11.5

68%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

1. FC Nürnberg

  • awayKarlsruher SC1:0
  • homeHannoverscher Sportverein 18962:1
  • awayKieler SV Holstein 19002:2
  • homeDSC Arminia Bielefeld4:1
  • awaySpVgg Greuther Fürth4:2

1. FC Kaiserslautern

  • homeBraunschweiger TSV Eintracht 18951:0
  • away1. FC Magdeburg0:3
  • homeSV Darmstadt 18983:0
  • awayFC St. Pauli2:1
  • homeKarlsruher SC0:0

Head to head

  • 03/21/262. Bundesliga3:0
  • 10/26/252. Bundesliga1:1
  • 04/12/252. Bundesliga2:1
  • 11/08/242. Bundesliga0:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Hertha BSC660017:718
21. FC Nürnberg651016:616
31. FC Heidenheim 1846641114:1213
4VfL Wolfsburg632115:811
51. FC Kaiserslautern63216:411
61. FC Magdeburg631211:910
7FC Energie Cottbus622214:138

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.