Both teams to score
Yes71%
ours 1.41
No29%
ours 3.42
All matches
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1. FC Heidenheim 1846 — FC Energie Cottbus, 2. Bundesliga
Germany, 2. Bundesliga
1. FC Heidenheim 1846
1.2DWWWLFC Energie Cottbus
1.9DWDLLOutcome probability
452530
1. FC Heidenheim 184645%Draw25%FC Energie Cottbus30%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
11. FC Heidenheim 18462.24—
XDraw4.00—
2FC Energie Cottbus3.30—
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
Metric1. FC Heidenheim 1846FC Energie CottbusCombined
Goals scored1.501.833.33
Conceded0.831.502.33
Corners12.313.312.8
Cards2.02.54.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.
- 1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
1. FC Heidenheim 1846FC Energie Cottbus3Table position71Matches in 14 days244.80%Possession53.80%7Days of rest7.8 - 2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: a home win is rated at 45%.
Most likely scorelines:…
- 3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pickRisky pickThe full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
First half total: Over 1.5
71%
Form and context
1. FC Heidenheim 1846
- awayDSC Arminia Bielefeld2:2
- homeKieler SV Holstein 19001:0
- awaySpVgg Greuther Fürth1:0
- homeSG Dynamo Dresden5:3
- awayHertha BSC1:4
FC Energie Cottbus
- homeFC St. Pauli1:1
- awayKarlsruher SC3:0
- awayVfL Wolfsburg4:4
- homeSpVgg Greuther Fürth3:4
- awayDSC Arminia Bielefeld0:3
Head to head
No head-to-head matches on record.
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1
Hertha BSC660017:718
Hertha BSC660017:7182
1. FC Nürnberg651016:616
1. FC Nürnberg651016:61631. FC Heidenheim 1846641114:1213
1. FC Heidenheim 1846641114:12134
VfL Wolfsburg632115:811
VfL Wolfsburg632115:8115
1. FC Kaiserslautern63216:411
1. FC Kaiserslautern63216:4116
1. FC Magdeburg631211:910
1. FC Magdeburg631211:9107FC Energie Cottbus622214:138
FC Energie Cottbus622214:1388
FC St. Pauli61418:87
FC St. Pauli61418:879
VfL Bochum 184862135:67
VfL Bochum 184862135:67